About this Market

Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a likely high of 23–24°C in Tokyo on September 29, driven by persistent cloud cover and widespread rain associated with a frontal system and moist southerly flow. These conditions limit daytime heating compared with clearer autumn days, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 23°C (28%) and 24°C (28%). Historical normals show late-September highs near 25°C, but the current setup favors suppression by precipitation and high humidity. Key variables include exact rainfall timing, cloud persistence, and any brief sunny breaks that could push readings toward 25°C or hold them at 22°C. Updated model guidance in the next 48 hours will clarify resolution thresholds.