About this Market

Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources indicate a stationary front and northerly flow will keep Tokyo under persistent cloud cover with light rain on September 30, limiting daytime heating and favoring a maximum near 21–22°C. This pattern follows several days of above-average rainfall that has already suppressed temperatures below late-September climatological norms of roughly 24–25°C. Model consensus shows little disagreement on the thermal profile, with winds shifting northeast and dew points supporting modest afternoon recovery at best. Traders have concentrated probability on the 21–23°C outcomes, reflecting the narrow expected range and the official JMA station reading that will determine resolution. Updated guidance on September 29 could refine the exact peak if cloud breaks or timing shifts.