About this Market

Recent model consensus points to a highest temperature of 25–26°C in Shanghai on September 30, reflecting the close market split between those outcomes. Persistent easterly flow, elevated humidity above 80%, and widespread cloud cover with showers are suppressing daytime heating, consistent with late-September climatology when average highs reach 26–28°C. Multiple global and regional forecasts, including GFS guidance, show limited solar insolation and possible rainfall totals exceeding 10 mm, which would cap the daily maximum near the lower end of the seasonal range. Updated short-range model runs and surface observations on September 29 will provide the final calibration ahead of market resolution.